Stats Insider: Completion ratings

The saying goes that “possession is nine tenths of the law” – but to any rugby league coach and his team battling their way in the increasingly competitive Telstra Premiership, possession means everything.

Playing with the football for long periods in games and making sure no tackles are wasted through mistakes or bad playmaking decisions is crucial in the modern game. And a look at the statistics from the first four rounds of the 2013 competition confirms it.

However, our analysis also reveals that some teams are under-performing based on the huge amount of possession they have had – while others are punching well above their weight.

For example, incredibly, premiers Melbourne – who sit atop the NRL ladder – are ranked 10th for completing their sets, doing so just 71.5 per cent of the time. And the third-on-the-ladder Sea Eagles are even worse, ranked 11th with a 70.25 per cent completion rate. 

In somewhat of a surprise it is the struggling Brisbane team that heads all-comers – they’re the only squad to average 80 per cent through the first four weeks of 2013.

The Knights are next best with 79.5 per cent, closely followed by a team that’s tasted victory just once, the Bulldogs, with 79 per cent.

The only other team that’s undefeated through Round 4, the South Sydney Rabbitohs, round out our completions top four with a 76.25 per cent rate.

The Dragons’ 74.75 per cent completions rate (for fifth overall) indicates the players are doing everything in their power to give their strike weapons chances to score. Clearly they could be big improvers if they maintain or improve their discipline with the ball and their attack starts to click. 

The two other big surprises are the disappointing completion rates of the Sharks and Cowboys. Cronulla, with two victories under their belt for seventh position on the NRL ladder, have been praised for their form over the past month – but how much better off would they be had they not stumbled to a 68 per cent completion rate that sees them second from bottom of all teams?

Which brings us to the Cowboys: you don’t have to look any further than their miserable 67.75 per cent completions rate to understand why they’ve spluttered to three consecutive defeats since their 24-12 win over the Bulldogs. Clearly it’s an area of focus for coach Neil Henry. 

Looking beyond the average completion rates of sides and running an eye over the breakdown of their completions from first half to second half, and game to game, is revealing.

For example, Brisbane appear to settle into a groove – good or average – every time they take the field. As the breakdown below shows, very little separates their completions from the first 40 minutes to the second 40 minutes.

The Gold Coast Titans are easily the league’s most consistent – they have had a total fluctuation of just two per cent from their past six halves of football!

Other findings include: the Knights are the only side that have improved their completions from the first 40 minutes in every game so far; all three losses from the Bulldogs came after dramatic drop-offs in their second-half completions; the Roosters are unpredictable, with fluctuations of 17 per cent (twice) and 10 per cent in three of their games.

The Sharks are extremely inconsistent – they have fluctuated by a total of 70 per cent in their eight halves of football. The Cowboys are worse – fluctuating 71 per cent in total to date! 

But by far the most inconsistent side when it comes to completions are the Parramatta Eels who have fluctuated by a massive 82 per cent over their four halves in 2013. Clearly that’s something for Ricky Stuart to look at over the coming weeks.

Finally, here’s the most-compelling statistic: premiers Melbourne are the only team that have improved their completions percentage week to week. Craig Bellamy is the master of management and if their progress with the ball in hand is anything to go by, their opponents over the coming weeks should be quaking in their boots. 

Round 1 – 68% (81-50) – lost 22-14 to Manly

Round 2 – 94% (93-95) – won 22-6 defeating Dragons

Round 3 – 77% (76-78) – lost 8-0 to Roosters

Round 4 – 81% (79-83) – lost 32-26 to Storm

Completing at: 80% (Ranked 1)

Round 1 – 85% (85-85) – won 42-10 defeating Wests Tigers

Round 2 – 69% (65-72) – lost 32-0 to Manly

Round 3 – 77% (67-86) – won 34-6 defeating Cowboys

Round 4 – 87% (80-91) – won 28-12 defeating Raiders

Completing at: 79.5% (Ranked 2)

Round 1 – 78% (76-79) – lost 24-12 to Cowboys

Round 2 – 71% (79-63) – won 20-16 defeating Eels

Round 3 – 80% (81-79) – lost 22-18 to Storm

Round 4 – 87% (95-76) – lost 17-12 to Souths

Completing at: 79% (Ranked 3)

Round 1 – 84% (75-94) – won 28-10 defeating Roosters

Round 2 – 66% (67-65) – won 14-12 defeating Sharks

Round 3 – 71% (80-63) – won 44-32 defeating Panthers

Round 4 – 84% (83-84) – won 17-12 defeating Bulldogs

Completing at: 76.25% (Ranked 4)

Round 1 – 79% (82-75) – lost 30-10 to Storm

Round 2 – 80% (80-80) – lost 22-6 to Broncos

Round 3 – 65% (69-60) – lost 30-17 to Raiders

Round 4 – 75% (84-65) – won 25-12 defeating Sharks

Completing at: 74.75% (Ranked 5)

Round 1 – 60% (50-67) – lost 28-10 to Souths

Round 2 – 78% (80-75) – won 16-14 defeating Warriors

Round 3 – 74% (70-80) – won 8-0 defeating Broncos

Round 4 – 86% (95-78) – won 50-0 defeating Eels

Completing at: 74.5% (Ranked =6)

Round 1 – 73% (63-82) – lost 12-10 to Sharks

Round 2 – 67% (67-67) – won 36-0 defeating Raiders

Round 3 – 81% (81-81) – won 16-14 defeating Manly

Round 4 – 77% (76-78) – won 28-10 defeating Panthers

Completing at: 74.5% (Ranked =6)

Round 1 – 67% (77-57) – lost 42-10 to Knights 

Round 2 – 68% (65-70) – won 28-18 defeating Panthers

Round 3 – 88% (88-88) – won 31-18 defeating Eels

Round 4 – 68% (70-65) – lost 26-0 to Manly

Completing at: 72.75% (Ranked 8)

Round 1 – 83% (75-90) – won 32-10 defeating Raiders

Round 2 – 68% (61-74) – lost 28-18 to Wests Tigers

Round 3 – 72% (83-65) – lost 44-32 to Souths

Round 4 – 67% (67-67) – lost 28-10 to Titans

Completing at: 72.5% (Ranked 9)

Round 1 – 64% (67-61) – won 30-10 defeating Dragons

Round 2 – 69% (67-72) – won 32-10 defeating Cowboys

Round 3 – 76% (82-69) – won 22-18 defeating Bulldogs

Round 4 – 77% (81-71) – won 32-26 defeating Broncos

Completing at: 71.5% (Ranked 10)

Round 1 – 79% (85-82) – won 22-14 defeating Broncos

Round 2 – 76% (74-78) – won 32-0 defeating Knights

Round 3 – 64% (67-60) – lost 16-14 to Titans

Round 4 – 62% (42-78) – won 26-0 defeating Wests Tigers

Completing at: 70.25% (Ranked 11)

Round 1 – 68% (61-76) – won 40-10 defeating Warriors

Round 2 – 76% (88-67) – lost 20-16 to Bulldogs

Round 3 – 69% (58-74) – lost 31-18 to Wests Tigers

Round 4 – 67% (80-50) – lost 50-0 to Roosters

Completing at: 70% (Ranked 12)

Round 1 – 69% (73-64) – lost 40-10 to Eels

Round 2 – 72% (67-78) – lost 16-14 to Roosters

Round 3 – 63% (64-63) – lost 28-4 to Sharks

Round 4 – 74% (73-75) – won 20-18 defeating Cowboys

Completing at: 69.5% (Ranked 13)

Round 1 – 68% (56-81) – lost 32-10 to Panthers

Round 2 – 61% (53-65) – lost 36-0 to Titans

Round 3 – 80% (75-87) – won 30-17 defeating Dragons

Round 4 – 68% (68-67) – lost 28-12 to Knights

Completing at: 69.25% (Ranked 14)

Round 1 – 75% (70-82) – won 12-10 defeating Titans

Round 2 – 60% (45-75) – lost 14-12 to Souths

Round 3 – 68% (79-56) – won 28-14 defeating Warriors

Round 4 – 69% (72-67) – lost 25-12 to Dragons

Completing at: 68% (Ranked 15)

Round 1 – 69% (76-63) – won 24-12 defeating Bulldogs

Round 2 – 70% (83-58) – lost 32-10 to Storm

Round 3 – 67% (61-72) – lost 34-6 to Knights

Round 4 – 65% (75-53) – lost 20-18 to Warriors

Completing at: 67.75% (Ranked 16)