Fantasy by the Numbers: Round 4
A closer look at some of the key NRL Fantasy performances of Round 4, and what they mean for your planned trades for Round 5.
Livewire halves too good to be true?
Anthony Milford (HLF, $454,000) and Moses Mbye (HLF, $457,000) have both started the season in supreme form, the two highest-scoring players in NRL Fantasy after the first month of the season. With the injury to Daly Cherry-Evans (HLF, $441,000), the pair are likely to find their way into even more Fantasy sides, with Milford in particular receiving much of the attention after back-to-back 80+ scores. A word of caution though: the bulk of his points still come from spectacular attacking plays, with 10 tackle breaks in each of his last two starts netting him 30 points in each game alone. While it wouldn't be a surprise to see him rack up another massive total against the Titans given the form he's in, it's unlikely those sorts of attacking numbers are sustainable, meaning we're likely to see him return to more erratic scores at some point. A lack of points from kick metres and a relatively high missed tackle count are still of concern. Mbye perhaps seems the more astute pick of the two, with some solid numbers (929 kick metres for the year as opposed to Milford's 474, four fewer missed tackles and goal-kicking duties) underlying his attacking threat.
Dragons duo go big
Josh Dugan's (WFB/CTR, $369,000) Fantasy appeal diminished quickly with his start to the year in the centres, and while his tackle count saw a steady increase, the rep star's numbers dropped off pretty much across the board. 211 run metres, a line break and a score of 37 against the Rabbitohs was a good indication of things to come, and Dugan delivered with a monster 87 points against the Panthers. That score was inflated in some ways thanks to 15 tackle breaks and a try, but that along with 209 run metres and two line breaks has shown enough to convince many that he's one of the best options in his position sub-$400,000.
Another Dragon to benefit Fantasy-wise from a slightly different role is Jack de Belin (2RF/FRF, $437,000), who is seemingly now playing close to 80 minutes in the middle each week. De Belin made 59 points alone in base stats (50 tackles, 98 run metres) against the Panthers and finished on 71 for the match. There doesn't seem to be any reason why this trend won't continue, making the former NYC Player of the Year one to seriously consider.
Mixed news for Souths pair
How good is Hymel Hunt (CTR, $285,000)? The man is consistent if nothing else. Scores of 41, 48, 42 and 48 in his first month at the Rabbitohs has seen his price jump $123,000 already, the third highest scoring CTR in Fantasy so far this season. Hunt has either scored or assisted in every game he's played, and with a tidy tackle count with only three misses for the season, around 100 metres per game and not a single error to date in cardinal and myrtle, looks like being one of the Fantasy success stories of the season.
Paul Carter's (2RF, $294,000) time as a Fantasy cash cow could be at an end however, with the former Titan named 18th man for Round 5. Hooked mid-way through the Rabbitohs' loss to the Bulldogs, Carter made four errors and missed two tackles to finish on 19 points. With 13 missed tackles, six errors and nine penalties conceded in four games, Carter's discipline is holding him back from being a consistent NRL Fantasy star. He did make 61 tackles in Round 3 against the Dragons, and a breakeven of 19 isn't the end of the world, but when we'll see him back in Souths' 17 remains to be seen.
Top scores in Round 4
Josh Dugan (WFB/CTR, $369,000): 87
Anthony Milford (HLF, $454,000): 80
Shaun Kenny-Dowall (WFB/CTR, $345,000): 79
Ryan James (FRF/2RF, $399,000): 77
James Roberts (CTR/WFB, $332,000): 72
Bottom scores in Round 4
Jake Mamo (WFB, $281,000): -5
Jordan Kahu (WFB/CTR, $198,000): -1
Jeff Lima (FRF, $233,000): 0
Curtis Scott (CTR/WFB, $129,000): 1
Cory Denniss (WFB/CTR, $154,000): 4
Top Round 4 price increases
Craig Garvey (HOK, $280,000): +$62,000
Anthony Milford (HLF, $454,000): +$50,000
Matt Parcell (HOK, $286,000): +$49,000
Jackson Hastings (HLF, $269,000): +$42,000
Cody Walker (HLF, $279,000): +$40,000
Top Round 4 price decreases
Jordan Kahu (WFB/CTR, $198,000): -$39,000
Damien Cook (HOK, $353, 000): -$39,000
Tim Mannah (FRF, $322,000): -$37,000
Jake Mamo (WFB, $281,000): -$31,000
Ben Hampton (HLF, $207,000): -$28,000