Fantasy by the Numbers: Round 11
A closer look at some of the key recent NRL Fantasy performances, and what they mean for your planned trades for the upcoming round.
Essential investment in Canberra trio?
The Raiders have experienced plenty of joy down their right side, and have produced some NRL Fantasy gems in Elliott Whitehead (2RF, $476,000), Joseph Leilua (CTR, $428,000) and Jordan Rapana (WFB, $476,000). Against the Dragons, Leilua made an astonishing 13 tackle breaks to go along with 201 metres, five offloads and a line break, scoring 79 without any direct try involvement. Much like his inside man, Rapana also relies on attacking stats for the bulk of his points, with his 73 against the Red V coming from a try, two line breaks, nine tackle breaks and 238 metres. Whitehead is of course the safest option of the three, with a big tackle count (58 in Round 10) underpinning his attacking stats.
Amazingly, Leilua (73.3), Rapana (71.3), and Whitehead (67.7) sit in the top five in the NRL for their three-game average, with star hookers Cameron Smith (73.3) and Jake Friend (71.3) joining them. They no longer come cheap, but investment in one or two of the trio seems wise particularly given Canberra's good bye coverage for Fantasy coaches playing for overall points. They surely can't sustain these sorts of numbers every week, but even factoring in a slight drop they seem almost too good to pass up on.
Predictions of a turnaround in fortunes for Semi Radradra (WFB, $358,000) seemed slightly off the mark earlier this season, when the Eels flyer went on to score a season-low of six points in Round 6. However, he kicked on the following week, and with scores of 56, 52, 42 and 63 from Round 7 onwards looks to be back in a big way.
|Rounds 1-6||Rounds 7-10|
|Avg. Tackle Breaks||3.3||4.75|
As you can see from the table above, Radradra's numbers have improved significantly over the past four rounds, and with a break even of 14 and excellent bye coverage looks to be one of the most popular buys of the week.
The trouble with Tohu
There were mixed emotions for Fantasy coaches when Tohu Harris (2RF, $522,000) was named to return to the second row when the final teams for the Storm-Cowboys clash hit an hour prior to kick-off. Of course, when Harris is named to play one more game in the centres he will be handed dual position status, making him one of the more appealing CTR options in NRL Fantasy. On the other hand, you'd expect him to score better in the pack. Harris has been unstoppable of late, with a five-game average of 71.2. He has scored a try in four of his past five appearances, but an average of 156 metres and 31 tackles per game during that period still shows a solid foundation despite moving positions. Named to start in the No.4 jersey again on Tuesday, can we really be sure what role Harris will play moving forward? Despite his recent run of form, he sits in less than 5,000 Fantasy sides, perhaps indicative of the uneasy feeling many have towards trading in Melbourne's edge weapon.
Top scores in Round 10
Luke Lewis (2RF, $332,000): 89
Valentine Holmes (WFB, $309,000): 84
Tohu Harris (2RF, $522,000): 81
Anthony Milford (HLF, $462,000): 81
Joseph Leilua (CTR, $428,000): 79
Bottom scores in Round 10
Jacob Saifiti (2RF, $250,000): 2
Kurt Baptiste (HOK, $128,000): 3
Josh Aloiai (2RF, $186,000): 4
Kenny Edwards (2RF, $306,000): 5
Ben Hampton (HLF, $190,000): 6
Top Round 10 price increases
Joseph Leilua (CTR, $428,000): +$50,000
Valentine Holmes (WFB, $309,000): +$42,000
James Fisher-Harris (FRF, $253,000): +$42,000
Sam Perrett (WFB, $325,000): +$38,000
Jordan Rapana (WFB, $476,000): +$38,000
Top Round 10 price decreases
James Segeyaro (HOK, $399,000): -$39,000
Robbie Farah (HOK, $440,000): -$30,000
Dylan Walker (CTR/HLF, $228,000): -$29,000
Jeremy Latimore (FRF, $258,000): -$28,000
Jacob Saifiti (2RF, $250,000): -$26,000