NRL Fantasy teams analysis: Round 14

All the key team changes and the NRL Fantasy form guide for all 16 clubs heading into round 14.

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Canberra Raiders v Penrith Panthers, Friday 6pm at GIO Stadium

Raiders: Josh Papalii switches to lock with Sia Soliola moving to the second row in Canberra's only change. Siliva Havili has probably hit his peak price after jumping $421,000 in value since the start of the season, with Josh Hodgson expected back in the No.9 jersey in round 16.

Panthers: Blues brothers Nathan Cleary, James Maloney, Tyrone Peachey and Reagan Campbell-Gillard are all named to play while Kaide Ellis replaces the suspended Jack Hetherington on the bench. Cleary looms as a buy in the next week or two if he backs up from Origin, while James Fisher-Harris appears to have peaked.

• Round 14 NRL team lists

Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs, Friday 7.55pm at Cbus Super Stadium

Titans: Jarrod Wallace and Jai Arrow are named to back up from Origin, while Phillip Sami and Will Matthews return to the side to bump Keegan Hipgrave to the bench and Konrad Hurrell and Bryce Cartwright out of the 17. Hipgrave and AJ Brimson will both pass $100,000 in price rises next week.

Rabbitohs: Angus Crichton returns after being somewhat of a surprise call-up for NSW, with Damien Cook, Greg Inglis and Dane Gagai all needing to back up from Origin as well. Inglis is possibly the most likely to be rested while Robbie Farah could give Cook a spell, although Farah has dropped back to the reserves this week along with Tyrell Fuimaono, Mark Nicholls and Hymel Hunt. Cameron Murray again showed he's a gun when starting with 57 points last week but he's back to the bench for the full-strength side which makes him a likely sell. Adam Reynolds made 52 last week and Souths have a good run of games coming up (Titans, Eels, Cowboys, bye, Bulldogs, Tigers, Eels) so the Rabbitohs' attacking players could cash in.

Manly Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors, Saturday 5pm (3pm AEST) at AMI Stadium, Christchurch

Sea Eagles: The Tbrojevic brothers return, with Matthew Wright shifting back to the bench and Jack Gosiewski out injured and suspended. Apisai Koroisau and Martin Taupau have both averaged 61.3 in their past three games, with Koroisau again shaping as a probable keeper in the halves or as back-up hooker and Taupau the fifth best scorer in Fantasy this year. Jake Trbojevic is not far behind him in sixth place and should back up from Origin – although he's got a break even in the 60s this week – while Tom Trbojevic has a break even of 41 and shapes as a quality pickup if he comes through Wednesday night unscathed.

Warriors: Shaun Johnson is back at last in welcome news for Warriors fans and Fantasy coaches alike, with Peta Hiku returning to the centres and Gerard Beale to the reserves. Isaiah Papali'i is also back in the starting side, bumping Simon Mannering back to the bench. Johnson, Tohu Harris and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck are among the few keepers who will be in action across the league in round 17, but buying them now is a slight gamble considering they could be rested in round 16 following the New Zealand v England Test in the USA.  

Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters, Saturday 5.30pm at McDonald Jones Stadium

Knights: Herman Ese'ese returns from suspension in place of Jacob Lillyman in Newcastle's only change. Kalyn Ponga could be on the verge of a stunning Origin call-up in just his first full NRL season but Fantasy coaches would probably prefer to see him stay fresh for Saturday's game (especially if they're from NSW) after he produced yet another great score last week. Connor Watson has made close to $200,000 in price rises this season but he's just about peaked. Brock Lamb's return to first grade is probably a week away after he was named in the reserves.

Roosters: Ryan Matterson remains sidelined for a worrying third week straight following a concussion, with James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell and Boyd Cordner all named to return from Origin. That means Victor Radley moves back to the bench after a terrific 69 points in 65 minutes last week. Mitchell Aubusson also drops back to the bench and Nat Butcher, Lindsay Collins, Frank Paul Nuuausala and Matt Ikuvalu are out of the 17.

Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys, Saturday 7pm (7.30pm AEST) at TIO Stadium, Darwin

Eels: Jarryd Hayne and Corey Norman are back in the side for the injured Mitchell Moses and the suspended Tepai Moeroea, with Brad Takairangi switching to the second row, while Nathan Brown is back in the starting side at lock and Peni Terepo moves to prop. Rookie hooker Reed Mahoney has been named to make his debut off the bench, with Will Smith joining Moses in Parramatta's lengthy casualty ward list. Daniel Alvaro smashed out 87 points in an otherwise forgettable game for Parramatta last week and is now probably a keeper, and Brown could join him after making a solid return from an ankle injury via the bench on Saturday night.

Cowboys: Queensland trio Michael Morgan, Coen Hess and Gavin Cooper return while Matt Scott is back from suspension. Enari Tuala scored 51 including a try in his first game in the starting side at centre and he holds his spot with Kane Linnett remaining on the bench and Ben Hampton dropping to the reserves. Jason Taumalolo played the full 80 and produced huge numbers in attack against the Tigers last week but could have a quieter one with Queensland forwards Hess, Cooper and Scott back in the side.  

Cronulla Sharks v Wests Tigers, Sunday 2pm at Southern Cross Group Stadium

Sharks: Good news for Sione Katoa's cash cow prospects with the rookie holding a spot on the wing ahead of Sosaia Feki, who is dropped to the reserves with Valentine Holmes back in the side. Andrew Fifita has a staggering three-game average of 68, while Jesse Ramien is coming off scores of 48, 71 and 42 in the centres – including four tries in his past three games. Paul Gallen scored 48 last week and his price has just about bottomed out at $588,000 – a $272,000 drop on his starting price.

Wests Tigers: David Nofoaluma is out with a calf injury, replaced on the wing by Malakai Watene-Zelezniak, while Matt Eisenhuth has been named at lock after coming off the bench last week and Tim Grant returns to the interchange. Mahe Fonua scored just 25 last week after being shifted to the wing to covered for the injured Nofoaluma.

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos, Sunday 4.10pm at AAMI Park

Storm: Billy Slater is out with the hamstring injury that has sidelined him from State of Origin I, with Jesse Bromwich back at prop, Tim Glasby at lock, Ryan Hoffman and Christian Welch returning on the bench and Dale Finucane and Sam Kasiano (suspension) dropping out of the side. Cameron Munster, Will Chambers, Felise Kaufusi and Josh Addo-Carr are all set to back up from Origin. Cameron Smith is once again a must-have player considering he's unlikely to miss another game this season. He's also arguably the safest captaincy choice for round 14 considering Damien Cook will be backing up from his State of Origin debut.

Broncos: Alex Glenn's return from a knee injury means Tevita Pangai jnr drops back to the bench, while Josh McGuire also bumps Joe Ofahengaue to the interchange. Andrew McCullough, McGuire, Anthony Milford and James Roberts have all been named to back up from Origin. Tevita Pangai jnr has been in a great run of form and he's got a few price rises left in him even though his minutes will take a hit. Jamayne Isaako also still has some cash to make but if you can upgrade him to a keeper now's as good a time as any.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons, Monday 4pm at ANZ Stadium

Bulldogs: Kieran Foran is sidelined with a toe ligament injury meaning Jeremy Marshall-King returns to the halves and Michael Lichaa is back at hooker, while David Klemmer is back in the front row and Adam Elliott starts at lock – which bumps cash cow Rhyse Martin to the bench. Martin had been averaging an excellent 55 from his four NRL games to become one of 2018's best cash cows while John Olive is coming off a first-up score of 48 and is guaranteed a few big price rises assuming he holds his spot at centre for the next six weeks or so while Josh Morris is out. If you don't plan on holding Raymond Faitala-Mariner for the next bye round then now's a good time to sell considering his break even of 75.

Dragons: The Dragons are unchanged. Cameron McInnes has made four 60+ scores this year and they've all come in his past six games. Euan Aitken is due a big score and could be extra motivated to get amongst the tries after missing out on NSW Origin selection.