Lone Scout's NRLFantasy Q&A: Round 5
There are some new cheapies on the radar, some fallen guns rediscovering their mojo and more injuries to navigate, so here are my answers to the week's big NRL Fantasy questions.
This week's fan questions
What's the story behind Ogden? Looking okay with Napa out for 5-6 weeks
From Daniel Schorn
Bulldogs prop Ofahiki Ogden has been named to start with Dylan Napa sidelined with a syndesmosis injury. He's fairly cheap at $301k due to a career average around 22 across 11 games in 2018-19. The encouraging news is that he has averaged around 21 minutes per game in that time, going at slightly better than a point per minute consistently. If he's starting and can up that to around 40 minutes, the signs are good that he could average around 40 until Napa returns. There are some risks – if he struggles a bit there are players like Sauaso Sue and Renouf To'omaga who could take that place. Don't expect mammoth price rises but if he stays in the run-on side for six weeks he could make $150k in that time. He probably makes the most sense as a buy if you have someone like Napa, Braidon Burns or Adam Keighran taking up a bench spot that could be used to make some money.
If you were upgrading to a gun with one trade this week, would you use your second trade on getting in Okunbor or CHT? i.e. who stands to make more money in the foreseeable future?
From Dom Griffin
Warriors half Chanel Harris-Tavita and rampaging Bulldogs winger Jayden Okunbor are the top two cash cows of the week. Okunbor has gained more (he has gone up $92k in two weeks to sit at $304k) while Harris-Tavita moved $46k on debut to sit at $258k. Don't be surprised if Harris-Tavita's score drops this week; the Titans didn't make life too hard for him last week but the Rabbitohs probably will on Saturday. He looks busy though and kicks goals while every indication is that Okunbor will continue to rack up plenty of busts and metres. Each has a big negative break-even this week so the deciding factor may be your team balance. If I had to pick one I'd lean towards Okunbor slightly ahead of Harris-Tavita.
Get Okunbor in your life
Is Josh Aloiai worth a go after taking Taylor's place at lock to make some cash?
From Jason Norman
Wests Tigers forward Aloiai has been promoted to starting lock this week after a fairly handy performance against the Panthers in round four, with Elijah Taylor dropped to the reserves. He's in his fourth year of NRL and has had a few runs as a starting player in between longer stints as a bench forward and never really been much of a factor in Fantasy previously. Last week's 59 was inflated by five tackle busts and in four games of 40-plus minutes last season he averaged below 30, with only one score over 40. His scores should trend upwards if he hangs onto the starting lock role but there's no guarantee of that, nor of him making enough money to be worth the two trades to get in and out of your team since he is unlikely to hit keeper status. I think there are better options elsewhere.
Is it time to get rid of Garner??
From Jared Sippel
Wests Tigers forward Luke Garner scored just 29 in round four but it's his first score this year below 47 and his break-even is still only 24. He's definitely a hold unless you desperately need to clear up a spot for a better buy and have no-one else to sell.
Mitch Moses a good cut price keeper this year? Is Gutherson too?
From Cory Casbolt
Mitch Moses has two 50s and an 80 (plus 30 against the Roosters) in a rejuvenated Eels side this year. He seems to be relishing the role of senior half and is putting up stats in almost every category and kicking plenty of conversions as well. He's very much a confidence player and has gone through hot and cold streaks of Fantasy scoring before but he's equal-fourth among halves for points scored this year so if you reckon the Eels have turned a corner he may reward the gamble. As for Gutherson, it's his second year back from a knee reconstruction which is when players really get back to their best. He's putting up huge run metres and is capable of heavy Fantasy scoring when he gets those tries and line breaks on top. His price is still trending upward but as to whether he can really hit keeper status by averaging 50-plus, I have my doubts.
Top 5 Fantasy money makers: Round 4 v2
When will Te Maire Martin get DPP HLF/WFB?
From Matt Kelly
There will be a sweep of DPP updates after round six. If Martin is still playing fullback for the Cowboys in round six he should pick up dual position status then.
Is McCullough a hold or should I move him for Rein or a gun like Smith, Cook or McIness?
From Aidan Zlotnick
A lot of people picked up Brisbane hooker Andrew McCullough hoping to get a 53 scorer at a 47 price. Unfortunately Brisbane have had a few struggles across the park and their forwards haven't really got a roll on yet and McCullough is currently averaging 48.5 with little movement in his price and he has hardly run the ball in the past fortnight. It's hardly a disaster and he could easily still average over 50 but with a few other No.9s going better and Mitch Rein likely to score just as well for the next 10 or so weeks at a cheaper price there is an argument to make the trade to Rein now if you have no other more pressing issues.
Is Cleary a sell seeing as though he is barely doing any field kicking and his scores have been poor?
From Grant O'Hehir
I'd hold. Nathan Cleary averages close to 60 when he's fully fit, which he hasn't been for large parts of 2018 and 2019. His 34 last week included almost no general play kick metres due to a groin niggle but this doesn't sound like a long-term issue and he will benefit from Viliame Kikau's return. I'd expect him to be among the elite Fantasy halves by the end of the year.
Upgrade Jarome Hughes to Ponga this week?
From Veni Tuku'aho
Yep I like it
Is Lawrie set for big minutes with Sims injured and Friz going to an edge?
From Charlie Bruton
A fractured arm to Korbin Sims and the return of Tyson Frizell is good news for Blake Lawrie owners and bad news for Jacob Host owners. Lawrie is a hold and a viable top-17 player for now but I don't see his minutes changing too much. Frizell will almost certainly spend time in the middle rotation given two of the three bench forwards (Host and Luciano Leilua) prefer to play on an edge.
Top 5 Fantasy disappointments: Round 4
How much longer should I put up with Latrell Mitchell's poor results? I have plenty of replacement centres (Capewell/Nikora/Bird) who could fill his starting spot.
From Eddie King
The big argument for selling Mitchell is the wealth of better options at CTR this year. It was a real struggle last year but with the likes of Briton Nikora and John Bateman available there I think you can afford to trade Mitchell to a cheaper option.
