Fantasy coaches are desperate for cash cows (that aren't really there) and on the hunt for those key round 12 pickups on the eve of the State of Origin period.
Which players are worth the trade and who should you steer clear of? The Lone Scout has the answers.
This week's Fantasy questions
Which is the better investment, Corey Allan or Patrick Herbert?
From Jarron Pearson
Herbert, although it doesn't necessarily make him a great buy. Corey Allan hasn't been a great Fantasy scorer this year (he only has one score above 30) while Herbert has been very solid – with three scores around 30 then a 60 last round. Herbert is projected to make $90k in his next couple of games if he scores a couple of 40s, but after already jumping $129k on his starting price he will need more big scores if he is to be a worthwhile cash cow. He could have another $100k in price rises in him but that probably doesn't justify trading him in now and cashing him out later (by comparison, Bronson Xerri has jumped $200k on his starting price, and Maika Sivo has jumped $316k).
Who are the must-have FRFs and 2RFs?
From Louis Ricchetti
The list of genuine must-haves in those positions is pretty short: Payne Haas, Andrew Fifita, John Bateman (at centre ideally, when fit), Briton Nikora (at centre). There are several high-scoring second-rowers – Cameron Murray, Jason Taumalolo, Jake Trbojevic, Jai Arrow, Martin Taupau, etc – so any combination of those guys in your back row will do the trick.
What keepers are there that play in round 12?
From Sam Colgan
Nathan Cleary*, Martin Taupau, Adam Reynolds*, Cameron Murray*, Aiden Tolman, Jason Taumalolo. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, James Tamou and Mitch Moses are borderline keepers, based on current scoring.
(*Assuming they're not picked for Origin)
Is it time to bring in Farah? I'm trading out Lawrie and Cartwright and looking for strong replacements.
From Bryce Liam Callanan
It really depends on whether you think Farah will keep an 80-minute role with bench hooker Jacob Liddle in the Tigers' 17. Liddle is highly rated by the club but has only replaced Farah once in three games this season – in another game the pair shared the field for 18 minutes, and last week Liddle was an unused interchange player as the Tigers came within a whisker of beating the Storm in Melbourne. The one time Farah was benched was in a blowout win over Penrith, so there's a chance he's an 80-minute player in all non-blowouts – but trading him in is a risk. If he plays 60 minutes a game rather than 80, the stats suggest he'd score 49 points a game rather than 64.
If you do expect Farah to retain a big-minute role, now is the time to buy – his price has dropped by around $100k and his break even of 48 is definitely achievable.
Is Papenhayzen worth bringing in due to his low break even? Or a trap as he's back to the bench?
From Darren Barker
He's only a buy if he starts. As a bench player he averaged 11.5 points a game in his first four appearances before a stunning 69-point effort in the demolition of Parramatta. He's named on the bench, so (if he stays there) chances are he goes back to low scores most of the time. He'll rise in value next week anyway, but his price rises will slow down quickly unless he gets more quality scores.
If he's a late inclusion in the starting side on Sunday though, the Storm speedster could make a lot more money. His break even of -35 is pretty incredible and two scores of 30 is projected to net him $100k in his next two games, with more to follow. Scores of 40 would push him towards $135k in two games. He's at a slightly awkward price now at $341k, but there is an argument for trading him in if you can (it would likely involve selling a player from the Storm, Bulldogs, Dragons or Sharks) if he starts on Sunday.
Who needs to be traded out first, out of Lawrie, Capewell and Morgan?
From Daniel Chapman
Kurt Capewell has the highest break even of the three, in the mid-50s, and after leaking a dozen missed tackles last week it's hard to see him scoring better than that.
Dylan Walker a trap or a decent buy?
From Graeme Lock
A trap. Walker has never averaged 40 points a game across an entire season, and last week's score of 47 included a try. He usually scores around 33 points a game – a lower average than Bronson Xerri this season. At $376k he's not cheap enough to be a cash cow and he's almost certainly not a keeper.
Who are the new or likely new, if they are not there yet, DPP coming up in the next batch update?
From Denzil Grant
Nick Cotric is a chance of becoming a dual position player in Fantasy after round 12 if he remains in the centres for the next few weeks, along with Justin O'Neill (CTR + WFB), Kyle Turner (2RF + CTR), Ofahiki Ogden (2RF + FRF) and Gehamat Shibasaki (CTR + WFB).