The Broader Game: Crunching the NRLW finals numbers

If you’re like me, and fans who have posted to social media this week, you’re wanting to know the calculations of the five NRLW clubs and their finals chances this weekend.

The regular season of the rescheduled 2021 NRL Telstra Women’s Premiership will wrap up on Sunday with all three games having a massive bearing on who will advance to the semi-finals.

Newcastle are the only club out of contention but will be out to spoil the Titans’ finals hopes when the two sides clash at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday.

The four-team NRLW finals series will see first place take on fourth and second play third with the grand final to be played at Moreton Daily Stadium in Redcliffe on April 10.

Mathematically, the five NRLW clubs left remaining are all a chance to finish as minor premiers or drop as low as fifth and end their campaign.

Here's the example: If the Roosters beat the Dragons by 34 on Saturday, the Titans beat the Knights by 24 and the Eels beat the Broncos by 19 on Sunday, the Dragons will finish fifth with the other four sides above them on the ladder.

Unlikely, but not impossible.

The Titans, Broncos and Eels will all have a slight advantage in working out the scenario of play with the Dragons and Roosters to clash on Saturday.

That fixture will allow the Titans and Eels in particular, who are locked with the Roosters on competition points, to work out the calculations based on the result.

Firstly, let’s take a look at where each club stands.

• NRLW ladder after round 4

St George Illawarra Dragons

• Current standing: 1st (6 points)
• Points differential: +50
• Best finish: 1st
• Worst finish: 5th
• Likely: 1st

Verdict: Let’s not muck around, it’s unlikely the Roosters are going to beat the Dragons by 34 on Saturday which could knock the Red V out of the finals, so you can all but lock in Jamie Soward’s side for a top four finish regardless of the result. However, there is still a bit of work to do for Soward's side to maintain a top two spot or the minor premiership.

A solid win over the Roosters will keep them first pending the Broncos don’t overtake them on points differential.

Currently the Dragons are ahead of the Broncos by +14, meaning the three-time champions will have to knock the Eels off in big fashion, especially if the Red V get another win 24 hours earlier.

Brisbane Broncos

• Current standing: 2nd (6 points)
• Differential: +36
• Best finish: 1st
• Worst finish: 5th
• Likely: 2nd

Verdict: The Broncos have never lost two games in a row in the NRLW, so you’d be brave to write them off this week against the Eels at home. They’ll be fired up about losing top spot on the ladder but could gain that mantle back if the Dragons lose to the Roosters on Saturday.

If the Dragons are to win, the Broncos can still mow down their points differential to finish in first place.

Back-to-back losses will only put their top four aspirations in jeopardy should the Eels put a big score on them and other results, like the Titans scoring a massive win over the Knights and the Roosters beating the Dragons by a big margin. 

Parramatta Eels

• Current standing: 3rd (4 points)
• Points differential: 0
• Best finish: 1st
• Worst finish: 5th
• Likely: 4th

Verdict: The Eels have a points differential that reads zero, meaning they’ll have to beat the Broncos by at least 19 on Sunday to challenge for second spot.

At this point of their maiden season, they’ll just want to make the finals, which means they’re mainly locked in a three-way battle with the Titans and Roosters.

A win by any margin will help them finish in the top four, with only the Dragons required to beat the Tricolours.

However, a loss will put the Eels in a points differential battle for fourth spot with at least one other NRLW side, or out of contention altogether.

If the Eels are going to lose to the Broncos on Sunday, they can't afford it to be by a big margin. 

Gold Coast Titans

• Current standing: 4th (4 points)
• Points differential: -6 
• Best finish: 1st
• Worst finish: 5th
• Likely: 3rd

Verdict: The Titans’ big win over the Broncos has suddenly put them in a decent spot despite a negative points differential at the moment.

Gold Coast face a winless Newcastle side who leaked 40 points last week which provides Jamie Feeney’s players with the chance to leapfrog the Eels if they’re able to get a result on Sunday.

They’ll get a better understanding of what is required after Saturday’s Dragons-Roosters clash. If the Roosters are beaten, they'll only require a win to advance.

A Titans loss could put them on a points differential match-up with another NRLW side for fourth or spell the end of their campaign altogether.

Sydney Roosters

• Current standing: 5th (4 points)
• Points differential: -9
• Best finish: 1st
• Worst finish: 5th
• Likely: 5th

Verdict: The Roosters are in a tough spot despite stringing two wins together with their -9 points differential a concern going into the final round.

The Roosters will give themselves every chance of making the finals if they can beat the Dragons on Saturday, especially if they can do so in big fashion.

But if they can't get the chocolates in Kogarah they'll be relying on the Broncos to beat the Eels by a big margin or Newcastle to upset the Titans. From there, it will come down to points differential.

NRLW scenarios 

Scenario 1 - If the Dragons beat the Roosters

• And the Broncos and Titans win, fourth spot will be determined between the Eels and Roosters based on points differential. The minor premiership will be decided by points differential between the Dragons and Broncos OR;
• And the Eels and Knights win, fourth spot will be determined between the Titans and Roosters based on points differential. The Dragons will win the minor premiership OR;
• And the Broncos and Knights win, third and fourth spot will be determined based on points differential between the Eels, Roosters and Titans. The minor premiership will be decided by points differential between the Dragons and Broncos OR;
• And the Eels and Titans win, the Roosters will be knocked out. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership.

Scenario 2 - If the Roosters beat the Dragons

• And the Broncos and Knights win, third and fourth spot will be determined between the Eels and Titans based on points differential. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership OR;
• And the Eels and Knights win, the Titans will be knocked out. The minor premiership will be decided between the Dragons, Broncos, Eels and Roosters on points differential OR;
• And the Broncos and Titans win, the Eels will be knocked out. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership OR;
• And the Eels and Titans win, all positions on the ladder will be determined based on points differential.

Scenario 3 - If the Dragons and Roosters is drawn

In the possible scenario of a draw taking place in one or more games, the following could occur;

• If the Dragons and Roosters match is drawn, and the Broncos and Titans win, the Eels will be knocked out. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership OR; 
• And the Eels and Titans win, the Roosters will be knocked out. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership OR; 
• And the Eels and Knights win, the Titans will be knocked out. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership OR;
• And the Broncos and Knights win, the Titans will be knocked out. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership.

Scenario 4 - If the Broncos and Eels match is drawn

• If the Broncos and Eels match is drawn, and the Dragons and Titans win, the Roosters will be knocked out. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership.
• And the Roosters and Titans win, the Eels will be knocked out. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership.
• And the Roosters and Knights win, the Titans will be knocked out. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership.
• And the Dragons and Knights win, fourth place will be determined between the Titans and Roosters based on points differential. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership.

Scenario 5 - In the event of two draws

• If both the Dragons-Roosters and Broncos-Eels clashes are drawn, and Titans win, fourth spot will be determined between the Eels and Roosters. The minor premiership will be determined between the Broncos and Dragons based on points differential OR; 
• If both the Dragons-Roosters and Broncos-Eels clashes are drawn, and Knights win, the Titans will be knocked out. The minor premiership will be determined between the Broncos and Dragons based on points differential OR;
• If both the Broncos-Eels and Titans-Knights clashes are drawn, and Roosters win, fourth spot will be determined between the Eels and Titans based on points differential. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership OR;
• If both the Broncos-Eels and Titans-Knights clashes are drawn, and Dragons win, the Roosters will be knocked out. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership.
• If both the Dragons-Roosters and Titans-Knights clashes are drawn, and Broncos win, the Eels will be knocked out. The Broncos will claim the minor premiership OR; 
• If both the Dragons-Roosters and Titans-Knights clashes are drawn, and Eels win, fourth spot will be determined between the Roosters and Titans based on points differential. The Dragons will claim the minor premiership.

Scenario 6 - If all three matches are drawn

• If all three matches are drawn in round five, the Dragons and Broncos will battle it out for the minor premiership based on points differential. Third and fourth spots on the ladder will be determined by points differential between the Eels, Titans and Roosters.

And if you've managed to read this far down the page (well done!) an equal points differential ladder result will then come down to a greater % score involving for and against.

If that's equal too, whichever team scored the most tries throughout the regular season will advance. If that's equal too, it will go on most goals.

And don't worry, if that's all equal there's about 50 more ways to split the sides to ensure we get a top four finalised on Sunday.