How are goal-kickers affected by scoreboard pressure?

There's a different sort of pressure that goal-kickers carry in the NRL.

After all, in what is a team sport, it's an individual action that no other teammate can help with — it's just you, the tee, the ball... and tens of thousands of fans either screaming at you to miss or praying you strike it between the posts.

But what about when the game is on the line or you're desperately trying to mount a comeback? Surely the pressure would rise even more so then — creating an environment where some players may thrive and others might struggle?

Thanks to Goodyear, we've analysed the numbers to see just how important scoreboard pressure is when it comes to goal-kicking in 2022, and which players thrive most when the game is on the line for their respective teams.

General conversion rate

Excluding players who are not the team's primary goal-kicker (like Canberra's Corey Harawira-Naera) or those who have only kicked once or twice this year due to injury (like Wests Tigers' Adam Doueihi), it's little surprise to see Broncos captain Adam Reynolds leading the way when it comes to conversion rate this season.

Reynolds' 86 percent success rate is the best of any player this year, narrowly ahead of Panthers halfback Nathan Cleary with 85 percent. The 2021 Grand Final winner has also shown his prowess on the representative stage this year, however, slotting eight goals from eight attempts in the Blues' recent win in Origin Two.

Behind that pair features Jamayne Isaako and Valentine Holmes (both 83 percent) — although we'll drop Isaako out of the scoreboard pressure analysis given he has less than 20 attempts this year — before a slight drop off down to the next group.

Ryan Papenhuyzen and Mitchell Moses come in next with a 78 percent success rate this year while Zac Lomax (77 percent), Reuben Garrick (74 percent) and Sam Walker (74 percent) round out the top eight kickers this year.

With less than 20 attempts so far this year, both Jamal Fogarty (77 percent from 17 attempts) and Kalyn Ponga (75 percent from 12 attempts) have both been excluded, although both have been kicking well since recently taking over the duties.

Conversion rate when trailing

So how do those conversion rates stack up when the team is trailing in a game — potentially needing the two points on offer with a conversion or penalty attempt? 

Well, somewhat unsurprisingly, the two leading kickers stand up.

Reynolds' success rate actually improves from 86 to 90 percent (with just one miss this year with his side in a losing position) while Cleary is yet to miss — both of his attempts when the Panthers were trailing in games have gone over the black dot.

Walsh and Lomax are also both impressive — Walsh's rate rises from 80 to 84 percent (from 19 attempts) while Lomax has had just one miss from 11 attempts with the Dragons behind on the scoreboard, giving him a 91% conversion rate.

At the other end of the scale, it's not the best viewing for Sharks or Eels fans with Nicho Hynes joining Moses in a noticeable drop off in their conversion rate.

Hynes' season success rate of 64 percent (from 67 attempts) actually falls to just 50 percent when the Sharks are behind on the scoreboard, while Moses' conversion success rate falls 16 percent from 78 to 62 — converting eight of his 13 attempts when the Eels have been trailing in games this year.

Conversion rate in defeat

In defeat, there's some even more intriguing storylines to follow over the final few months of the regular season and into the NRL Telstra Premiership finals.

As expected, the likes of Reynolds (86%) and Lomax (81%) maintain a strong conversion rate despite their team's result, while Sam Walker is also worth highlighting — actually improving on his season rate from 74 to 76 percent.

Hynes' rate rises seven percent above his season average (from 64 to 71) while Jamal Fogarty's rises a remarkable 12 percent, albeit with a smaller sample size.

But again, it's not all smooth sailing, with several kickers — many of whom have high conversion rates for the year — presenting some interesting numbers in defeat.

Reuben Garrick's rate in defeat is 64 percent (down 10 percent on his season average), Matt Burton's rate is also down 10 percent from 73 to 63, while Mitchell Moses' falls from 78 percent for the year to 66 percent in defeat.

One of the best kickers in the game, Valentine Holmes is also a talking point, with four goals and four misses in games the Cowboys have lost this year — a telling point given North Queensland have lost two games by two points or less in 2022.

In both of those games, Holmes missed conversions that would ultimately prove the difference. However, they were in the first five weeks of the season and the Maroons star looks to have found his rhythm since to become one of the most consistent kickers in the game.

All in all, it'll be fascinating to watch over the rest of the year just how important goal-kicking proves to be for teams jostling for finals contention and ultimate Premiership glory.