Who are the dark horses at the World Cup?

Such is the nature of international rugby league, the World Cup tends to bring with it a surprise package or two, who manage stun the competition with an upset run. 

Back in 2017 it was Tonga and Lebanon who defied expectations in the men's draw, while both Cook Islands and Canada came up with surprise victories over England and Papua New Guinea respectively on the women's side. 

NRL.com takes a look at four dark horses across the men's, women's and wheelchair tournaments. 

Samoa (Men)

A dark horse based on history, but a stallion on paper. 

Without doubt the strongest group ever assembled by Toa Samoa, the wave of players pledging their allegiance to the blue jersey in recent months was reminiscent of when Jason Taumalolo kicked off a huge movement for Tonga, which has seen them become a genuine force on the international stage.

The backline has some of the most exciting players in the NRL right now, the pack is full of elite big men and, perhaps most crucially, there is depth in the halves with Premiership-winner Jarome Luai set to be joined by either Anthony Milford or Chanel Harris-Tavita come the business end. 

If they can get the culture and standards right in camp – something players have admitted may have been lacking in previous campaigns – then the sky is the limit for this squad.

England (Women)

Almost everyone is tipping a Jillaroos v Kiwi Ferns final, and for good reason, with the last three World Cup deciders being contested by Australia and New Zealand, stretching back to 2008.

But on home soil this time around, England have a great opportunity to disturb the status quo.

With the English equivalent to the NRLW – the RFL Women’s Super League – growing to now include 12 teams, and the standard of the female game improving in the country, the national team is well positioned to have its best run at a World Cup.

They had a tournament to forget in 2017, suffering a 38-0 defeat to Australia and an upset loss to the Cook Islands, and no doubt the current group will be keen to make amends this time around.

Australia (Wheelchair Rugby League)

They are currently ranked fourth in the world and have never finished better than second at this tournament, but Australia are set to have a red-hot crack at the world title in England.

The Wheelaroos have benefitted from the development of the game in Queensland in recent times, which has seen the Maroons become a force in their interstate rivalry with New South Wales - winning the last two State of Origins - after the Blues previously enjoyed a nine-year reign of dominance against their old foes.

Given Australia hasn't played since 2019 due to the pandemic, there is no way of accurately measuring where they are at, but we'll have a good idea before the World Cup kicks off thanks to the Wheelaroos playing three warm-up games in the space of five days.

Australia will have plenty of strike potential in their side, which includes Cory Cannane, the NSW Wheelchair Rugby League competition's leading tryscorer in each of the last four seasons, and Zac Schumacher, who scored four tries in this year's State of Origin for Queensland.

Tonga (Men)

While they are by no means an unknown on the international stage at this point, Tonga have yet to win a major international tournament so remain a dark horse for overall honours, at least for now.

Back in 2017 their run to the World Cup semi-finals came as a shock to most outside of their camp, but this time around Kristian Woolf’s men will turn up knowing they have beaten Australia, Great Britain and New Zealand in the past five years.

Almost all of the key contributors from previous successes are back on board, while they have a key advantage thanks to the arrival of Dragons playmaker Talatau Amone, who gives them a genuine playmaking option, something they have long lacked.

The road to the semi-finals looks to be a brutal one for Tonga though, with England or Samoa their likely quarter-final opponent.