It's mostly good news when it comes to Origin players backing up this week, while one of the game's best is set to return from an injury layoff.
Key note: In instances where three of the club’s players listed on the NRL team list have been additionally selected to play in State of Origin, the club may name one additional player as a reserve. In instances where four or more players named have been additionally selected to play in State of Origin, the club may name a maximum of two additional players as reserves.
NRL Fantasy teams analysis: Round 20
Knights v Wests Tigers, Friday at McDonald Jones Stadium
Knights: $637k WFB/HLF Kalyn Ponga is now owned by almost a quarter of all Fantasy teams and has really found his feet back at fullback. Bradman Best is named to play 48 hours after his Origin debut, and with a 53-point average in his last three games is a player who is set to attract some interest this week. Rookie Dylan Lucas is listed as 18th man, but if you own him he's a hold given he has a -6 break even.
Wests Tigers: Will Smith (HLF, $391k) is named at five-eighth after being a late inclusion there last week. Shawn Blore has really hit form of late, with a try last week helping him to 52, while Tommy Talau is finally set to make some money and has retained a spot in the centres. John Bateman (EDG, $753k) continues to be their best Fantasy player and comes off a score of 69 last week.
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Bulldogs v Broncos, Saturday at Belmore Sports Ground
Bulldogs: Rookie wing Blake Wilson looks set to keep his spot after a three-try showing last week, and with a break even of -4 heading into Round 20 it means he is suddenly a potential money maker. That sees Jacob Kiraz move to centre to accommodate the return of Josh Addo-Carr from Origin duty, while Jake Averillo retains the fullback job after scoring 38 there last week. The presence of Toby Sexton at halfback makes Matt Burton (HLF, $694) a more appealing prospect for the run home. Jackson Topine is named to start in the second row and comes off a 49 last week.
Broncos: A worry for the 22 percent of teams who own Patrick Carrigan, with the MID named in the extended reserves for the time being and no certainty to back up after Origin III. For now it means Kobe Hetherington (MID, $349k) gets another start at lock. Kurt Capewell returns from injury in the second row, but cash cow prospect Brendan Piakura ($EDG, $305k) keeps his starting spot in the second row and this week has a break even of 9.
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Sea Eagles v Cowboys, Saturday at 4 Pines Park
Sea Eagles: Daly Cherry-Evans is set to back up after playing for Queensland mid-week, but his owners have a big decision to make, with his Fantasy prospects falling in recent times. DCE scored 74 in his last game, but that was with a try-scoring double, and in the three games prior to that he'd averaged 41.3, which is well below a keeper score. Jake Trbojevic made a successful return to action in Round 18, but his scores are just below him being someone to consider at this stage. Dean Matterson – the younger brother of Eels forward Ryan – has earned a place on the bench and will be added to Fantasy this week.
Cowboys: Semi Valemei keeps his spot on the wing ahead of Kyle Feldt, who is again the 18th man. The equation is simple with Valemei, when he scores he's a great WFB option, with a pair of 66s in those games, and when he doesn't he's a stay away, having scored 23 in both his games this year when he hasn't scored. Only Nicho Hynes has a better last three game average than Scott Drinkwater's 78.3 and he's a great WFB option.
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Roosters v Storm, Saturday at Sydney Cricket Ground
Roosters: Despite being named to start at hooker, Jake Turpin is a sell this week given Brandon Smith returns on the bench. Turpin has a break even of 48, which he is unlikely to reach if he's sharing the role with Smith. Speaking of Smiths, Sandon keeps the halfback role with Sam Walker still at least another week away. Joey Manu has been excellent in his last three games, with four tries in that period and an average score of 71.7.
Storm: The club's Origin trio are named to back up, which is particularly important in the case of Harry Grant (25 percent ownership) and Cameron Munster (7 percent). Will Warbrick returns after suffering a head knock in Round 18. Eliesa Katoa remains sidelined with an eye injury.
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Warriors v Sharks, Sunday at Go Media Stadium
Warriors: After his 84-point showing last week Mitchell Barnett (MID/EDG, $578k) moves from the second row to prop, with Bunty Afoa (concussion) dropping out of the side. Dylan Walker is named to play despite suffering an arm injury last week. Josh Curran (EDG, $459k) returns from suspension and starts in the second row.
Sharks: No changes to the 17 which got the job done last week, although Braden Hamlin-Uele (MID, $385k) has been included in the reserves and could make his return from a rib injury. Nicho Hynes is in incredible form, with scores over 80 in five of his past seven games. This week his price has jumped back up above $1m.
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Dolphins v Panthers, Sunday at Kayo Stadium
Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is set to back up from Origin, but it's in the centres which is bad news for his Fantasy owners. With less involvement than at fullback, it may make The Hammer a sell in coming weeks, but for now he's a hold and hope. His return bumps Valynce Te Whare out of the 17. Harrison Graham has the starting hooker role again after scoring 47 there last week, and with no sign of Jeremy Marshall-King as he continues to battle a shoulder injury, the rookie could be a handy pick up at just $269k.
Panthers: Nathan Cleary has been included in the reserves and could make his return from a layoff with a hamstring injury, but those wanting to bring him back in should wait a week, with his break even set at 100 and his price almost certain to drop. If he doesn't play then Jack Cogger will again run the show from halfback and is a good chance of adding to the $212k he has already made this season. CTR Izack Tago ($609k) shapes as a possible point of difference player for the back end of the season given he is in less than 3 percent of teams, with a last three game average of 64.7. The Origin representatives are named to back up for now, but that's a situation worth keeping an eye on closer to kick-off, and it'd be little surprise if coach Ivan Cleary opted to rest some or all of them ahead of the run home.
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Eels v Titans, Sunday at CommBank Stadium
Eels: Mitchell Moses, Clint Gutherson and Reagan Campbell-Gillard all return to club action, with Moses ($879k) and Gutherson ($633k) particularly intriguing Fantasy options this week. Moses has been on fire of late, averaging 76.7 across his last three games, while Gutherson is a potential point of difference who is owned by only 4.4 percent of teams right now.
Titans: Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, who is named to back up along with the other three Maroons representatives, might be the best POD around right now, with a 70.7-point average in his last three games and less than 6 percent of teams owning him. There could be value in Brian Kelly too, with the CTR priced at $563k this week and hitting scores over 40 more often than not. After an excellent debut last week which saw him score 60, Jacob Alick (EDG, $274k) drops back to the reserves.
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