Round 14 is a rare return to normality of 17 scoring players as we await State of Origin II team news post the King’s Birthday long weekend.
Let's take a swing at those conundrums that have come through for our eager coaches and as always check through the bottom tier list if you missed this week's cut off as well as Part 2 of my Origin bye round article for recommendations to cover rounds 15-19 as a whole.
Q: Is Alex Twal a trade out and if so who is best to get for him? – Huey, Finn, Harry
A: Twal will need to be swapped out I’m afraid after news from the Wests Tigers suggest 4-6 weeks on the sidelines. Already the most common trade is Alex Twal out for Terrell May, similar in cost and the Wests Tigers play all the remaining bye rounds. May was scoring brilliantly before Twal’s injury and now he will have to take on even more responsibility for Benji Marshall’s chargers. If you already own May the other heavy hitters are Toby Couchman and Payne Haas, however you won’t get bang for your buck on those two due to their bye schedules. One who is cheaper and has a much friendlier draw is Cameron McInnes who appears to have made a full recovery from his ACL injury suffered last year.
Mighty Buy Round 14: Terrell May
Q: I Have a real EDG crisis approaching in Round 15. I already have Ryan Couchman and want to sell one of Ativalu Lisati or Heilum Luki. With cost not a problem which player should I trade and who to? I was thinking Siua Wong or Kai Pearce-Paul or are there any others? - Steven
A: With both Storm and Cowboys playing this week, hold both and see if Luki gets the nod for Queensland in Origin. If I had to choose this week, I’d move on Ativalu Lisati due to his recent lower scores. Kai Pearce-Paul is top of my list of EDGs and he plays all the remaining bye rounds. Siua Wong will be a handy point of difference player that will just miss Round 18 and will be a bit cheaper going into Round 15 due to an unusually low output last weekend. These are two of my favourite edges to own, the other EDG to target after their Round 15 Bye is Dylan Lucas.
Q: With their injuries, I was wondering if I should I trade Alex Twal, Jock Madden and/or Herbie Farnworth and looking for recommendations who to bring in? - Gus
A: Well team lists take care of 2/3 of these three as both Jock Madden and Herbie Farnworth are named back in their line ups so I would look at just the Alex Twal to Terrell May and bank the remaining trades.
Mighty Helpful player of the round: Sualauvi Fa'alogo
Q: I’ve got Alex Twal, Herbie Farnworth and Cooper Bai and 300k in the bank, I need a lot of WFB and CTRs for Round 15 but I also only have 9 trades left. - Miles
A: With not many trades left I would look to save where you can. Hold Farnworth as he is back to a green dot while Cooper Bai hasn’t been great lately but is a number for you next week so only sell him if you are well stocked at MID. With the bad news on the Alex Twal injury, I’d suggest trading him for Jack Bostock this round or if you think you can hold a week, wait to see Origin II team lists and bring in Dylan Edwards or Reece Walsh provided they aren’t named there. I would also not be averse to go in a few numbers short in Round 15 as a lot of the highly owned players on bye that week have recently been in red hot form and shouldn’t be sold easily.
Q: I held Simi Sasagi until this point and don't play bye rounds so he is back for our next match up is he still a must sell and who are some promising cheapie cash cows this week? - Riley
A: No, head-to-head owners do not need to do the “horse-trading” moves of their overall counterparts during this period. You will lose him as a red dot this week but then he should be right to go in Round 17 and you’ll have a gun CTR for your run home. In the meantime, look at promising cash cow Latrell Siegwalt, he is WFB only but if you have DPP cover he can score for you this week and as he is cheap you won’t need to trade out a gun to get him. He will also help boost your salary cap while you are not playing in head-to-head during Round 15.
Q: I like your Alex Twal to Terrell May suggestion but I’m a bit short. Who is your best buy under $400k as will need a cash down option for Joash Papalii to enable the option? - Sharky Pete
A: Trading out Joash Papalii I think can be justified if getting May in. Of the options, I think the safest and more lucrative of the bunch would be Latrell Siegwalt (see above).
First Take: Wests Tigers v Panthers
Q: I will be short one MID once trading Alex Twal to Terrell May and will have 12 trades remaining and thinking of trading Dylan Brown? – Harry W.
A: Trading Dylan Brown is a risk due to his high upside but I think it's fine if his performance doesn’t improve this week. I would give him one more week and also ensure you have the HLF cover up through Round 18. In terms of MID options Xavier Willison is a similar price and will go well without Pat Carrigan, however I’d even look at Jack Williams who has even better bye round cover than Willison and will be a handy squad member for the rest of the year.
Lone Scout’s Trade In, Trade Out Tier List – Round 14
Specifically to cover the remaining four bye rounds 15-19 check out my updated article on NRL.com as I went through a Tier ranking for each team and recommended trade ins, holds and trade outs, to highlight which teams and players are best to look at to cover through the Origin bye round periods.
Please Note: Those focusing on just Head-to-Head competitions, especially those not playing bye rounds be aware. During this period the best trades and options will differ to those playing overall competitions during this time and, as most focus on overall competition, that is where the advice is targeted. Also watch out for holding too many Dolphins, Rabbitohs and Titans players.
First Take: Bulldogs v Eels
Tier 1 – Must Trades
Buys
Terrell May
Sells
Blayke Brailey
Alex Twal
Pat Carrigan
Tier 2 – Recommended Trades
Buys
Jacob Kiraz
Isaiah Iongi
Kai Pearce-Paul
Latrell Siegwalt
Jack Bostock
Sells
Setu Tu
Tier 3 – Luxury trades or wait a week
Buys
Isaiya Katoa
Reece Walsh
Teig Wilton
Payne Haas
Sells
Thomas Mikaele
Euan Aitken
Aitvalu Lisati
Dylan Brown
Scott Drinkwater
Nicho Hynes
Thanks for all the questions and keep them coming in at thelonescout@nrl.com.au