'Keep winning': Finals race heats up as clubs jostle for top-eight spots

From the battle for State of Origin glory to the chase for the NRL finals, the focus of rugby league fans has immediately pivoted as the closest season in recent memory charges towards its conclusion. 

The end of the interstate series marks the start of a new phase of the NRL season, with teams jostling for a place in the top eight in a high-stakes race to September. 

This season's competition is the closest in years, with just eight points separating second and 11th on the ladder as we headed into Round 20.

A total of 13 teams have genuine finals ambitions and are battling it out for just eight spots. 

History suggests at least one side sitting outside the eight after Round 20 will play finals football this year. Twenty-two teams since 1999 have climbed into the eight having been on the outside looking in after 20 rounds. 

Last season it was the Roosters, while in 2024 it was Newcastle who were all the way down in 13th before finishing eighth. The Tigers entered Round 20 in 13th spot but look to have kissed their finals hopes goodbye with a 32-0 loss to the Bulldogs, who climb to 10th on the back of their victory at Accor Stadium on Saturday night.

As it stands, Penrith still sit on top of the ladder, although Thursday night's loss to the Broncos gave the Warriors and Roosters the chance to climb within two points and that's exactly what they did.

The Roosters got the job done against the Storm, who lost Will Warbrick to a season-ending Achilles injury.

That leaves Melbourne in 11th spot ahead of next week's clash with the Rabbitohs.

The Warriors were pushed all the way by the Dragons but did enough to claim a 20-12 win that keeps them in second spot with a +202 differential compared to the Roosters' +84.

Given the close nature of the ladder, wins over teams in the finals mix take on greater importance at this time of the year and can contribute to big swings in ladder position. 

Cronulla climbed from sixth to fourth with last week's dominant win over the Dolphins and retained that spot by downing the Knights on Friday night at Ocean Protect Stadium.

The Sharks have progressed to the preliminary final in the past two seasons and this year looms as the squad's final chance to taste premiership glory before a host of big names depart.

The Dolphins fell to seventh on the back of their 66-0 drubbing at the hands of the Sharks in Round 19 and have struggled without halfback Isaiya Katoa.

They will need to steady the ship to remain inside the eight before the playmaker's expected return in Round 23.

Coach Kristian Woolf will welcome back Origin stars Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Selwyn Cobbo for a crucial clash with the eighth-placed Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are level on 24 competition points. 

North Queensland leapfrogged Manly with last week's golden point win at 4 Pines Park and will receive a major boost with the impending return of halfback Tom Dearden from an ankle injury.

The 2025 Wally Lewis Medallist is set to slot straight back into the halves and take the Cowboys to another level. 

South Sydney continue to battle multiple injuries and their loss to the Raiders on Saturday left them in sixth as they fight for their first finals finish since 2022.

The Bunnies will be leapfrogged by the winner of the Dolphins-Cowboys clash while Manly will also go past Souths if they can down the Titans on Sunday.