'Keep winning': Finals race heats up as clubs jostle for top-eight spots

From the battle for State of Origin glory to the chase for the NRL finals, the focus of rugby league fans has immediately pivoted as the closest season in recent memory charges towards its conclusion. 

The end of the interstate series marks the start of a new phase of the NRL season, with teams jostling for a place in the top eight in a high-stakes race to September. 

This season's competition is the closest in years, with just eight points separating second and 11th on the ladder leading into Round 20.

A total of 13 teams have genuine finals ambitions and are battling it out for just eight spots. 

History suggests at least one side sitting outside the eight after Round 20 will play finals football this year. Twenty-two teams since 1999 have climbed into the eight having been on the outside looking in after 20 rounds. 

Last season it was the Roosters, while in 2024 it was Newcastle who were all the way down in 13th before finishing eighth. The Tigers currently sit 13th, six points behind the Cowboys as they look to snap a 15-year finals drought.

As it stands, Penrith sit comfortably at the top of the ladder, four points clear of the Warriors and Roosters. The Panthers play both sides in consecutive weeks in Round 23 and 24 in a fortnight that could determine the minor premiership.

A logjam has developed beneath the Roosters, with the Sharks leading a chasing pack on 26 points. 

Given the close nature of the ladder, wins over teams in the finals mix take on greater importance at this time of the year and can contribute to big swings in ladder position. 

Cronulla climbed from sixth to fourth with last week's dominant win over the Dolphins, who fell from fifth to seventh in the process. 

The Dolphins have struggled without halfback Isaiya Katoa and will need to steady the ship to remain inside the eight before the playmaker's expected return in Round 23.

Coach Kristian Woolf will welcome back his Origin stars for a crucial clash with the eighth-placed Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are level on 24 competition points. 

The Sharks have progressed to the preliminary final in the past two seasons and this year looms as the squad's final chance to taste premiership glory before a host of big names depart.

Friday's clash against Newcastle shapes as pivotal to both teams' top four hopes. The two sides are level on 26 points, though the Knights still have a bye to come.

In a sign of how close this season is, the winner of Friday's match could rise to second, while the loser could drop all the way to eighth, depending on how other results play out this weekend.

"Games against teams in the top eight are massive," Sharks forward Billy Burns said. "We don't have a bye left so we've just got to keep winning. Focusing on our position on the ladder won't become an issue if we just keep putting our best foot forward. 

"In this period after Origin we've had a boost of energy from Addin [Fonua-Blake], Blayke [Brailey] and Briton [Nikora]. They've learnt a few things and can relay that back to us. 

"Having that experience will help in the back-end and a few boys have had a chance to get some experience while they were away so it will put us in good stead for the semis."

The battle for a top-four spot is just as intense as the fight for a place in the top eight. No team has won the title from outside the four since Terry Lamb's Bulldogs in 1995.

After finishing fifth last year, the Sharks don't need to be reminded of this fact. 

Craig Fitzgibbon's men were forced to play three consecutive sudden-death finals, with trips to Canberra and Melbourne in back-to-back weeks. The toll eventually proved too great and Cronulla lost to the Storm in a hard-fought preliminary final.

It's a situation they're desperate to avoid in 2026. 

"The standard we hold ourselves to is that of a top-four team," Burns said. "If we just keep chasing those standards, it will put us in good stead and hopefully have us at the right point on the ladder to be in the top four. 

"That's the goal and getting two cracks in the finals is massive. We learnt that lesson last year and with the added travel on top of it, it's hard to win from outside the four. It's not the primary focus but that's the standard this club's at and we'll keep chasing that."

Sitting two points behind the Sharks and Knights are the Rabbitohs, Dolphins and Cowboys on 24 points. The Sea Eagles are ninth on 22 points.

North Queensland leapfrogged Manly with last week's golden point win at 4 Pines Park and will receive a major boost with the impending return of halfback Tom Dearden from an ankle injury.

The 2025 Wally Lewis Medallist is set to slot straight back into the halves and take the Cowboys to another level. 

Melbourne and Canterbury have surged up the ladder in recent weeks to sit 10th and 11th on 20 points, ahead of the Raiders and Tigers on 18 points. 

The Storm face a tough test against the Roosters on Friday night, while Saturday's clash between Canberra and South Sydney will play a key role in determining each side's finals fate. 

The Raiders returned to form with a dominant victory over the Bulldogs last weekend, while the Rabbitohs held off the fast-finishing Knights to prevail on Jai Arrow's birthday. 

South Sydney continue to battle multiple injuries but are slowly welcoming back their big names as they fight for their first finals finish since 2022.

Cody Walker returns from suspension this week, with Alex Johnston also named to make his comeback on Saturday and Latrell Mitchell expected back in Round 21 in a major boost to their top-eight quest. 

"We're sitting much better than last year," experienced centre Jack Wighton said. 

"It's come around quick. We can't carry our divots, what's been done is done. We've got eight games to put our best foot forward now, so we'll take it one week at a time."