Lone Scout's NRL Fantasy Q&A: Round 11
With several big team changes for round 11, the likes of Andrew Fifita and Adam Reynolds hitting top form and Cameron Smith suddenly not an Origin player, there are plenty of talking points in the world of NRL Fantasy this week.
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Here are my answers to some of the big questions.
Who's the best cash cows this week Scout?
From Lachlan Mead
Rhyse Martin or Brock Lamb.
Is it a good time to get Fifita, or is it better to hold? His break even is low so he should rise in cash.
From Kieran Waters
This one depends if you're playing for overall points or head-to-head. In the short term his price is still rising – he'll probably pass the $900,000 mark next week – and if you're playing overall you want him for the first bye week in round 13, so he's a buy now. As you say he can't keep hitting monster scores forever and his minutes will surely drop with Gallen, Luke Lewis and Wade Graham to return to the Sharks pack, so for head-to-head it's probably wise to wait until later when his price drops a bit before snapping him up.
Hey Scout, do you think Adam Reynolds can stay a keeper level scorer if Souths keep up the good form? Or is he a trap?
From Cameron
Adam Reynolds was a breakout Fantasy star in 2012 and a genuine keeper in 2013, 2014 and 2015 – averaging better than 50 points a game in those seasons – before his scores dipped down to the mid-40s in the last couple of years. Those returns pretty much line up with the Rabbitohs' form as a team – they had winning records from 2012-2015 before winning less than 45% of their games in the last couple of years.
Right now the Rabbitohs are winning again – including a dominant 24-10 win over the ladder-leading Dragons on Sunday – and Reynolds is reeling off big scores after a quiet first month of the year. If that continues, and Reynolds stays fit (he's missed 20 games since 2014) he'll be a good buy. Assuming Souths' form stays good then injuries should be the only thing that would stop Reynolds being a keeper.
DCE or Adam Reynolds?
From Alen
Any other week and I'd confidently answer 'DCE' to this one, but with Reynolds coming off scores of 72 and 66 and Daly Cherry-Evans about to lose the goal-kicking duties to the recently recruited Trent Hodkinson, there is a decent argument for saving $50,000 and going for Reynolds. I've got DCE in my side and still reckon he'll probably have the edge over the course of the season but it'll be close.
What to do with Shaun Johnson? And do you expect Mahe Fonua to be back next week after his tardy indiscretion?
From Johnny Conley
Shaun Johnson's ankle injury is set to now keep him out until after the Warriors' round 13 bye, he told the NZ Herald, and there's also the risk he'll miss round 16 with Stephen Kearney saying he's planning to leave out any Kiwi internationals from his team's clash with Cronulla on the Friday following the Denver Test match. That makes him a probable sell for overall points, although if you're playing to win your head-to-head comp you could hold him if you've got a decent back-up half in your squad.
Fonua was excellent for the Tigers last Thursday so will be in contention for another first-grade call-up next round, having been dropping for being late to training this week. With a negative break even and the potential to be a borderline keeper in the outside backs he's certainly a hold if you've got him.
Valentine Holmes on a good run now, is he worth bringing into the team?
From Kilian Amini
His season average is very ordinary 25 and he'll probably lose the fullback spot again when Josh Dugan returns from injury, so I'd avoid.
With Rein and Kikau now on the bench I'm panicking, what do I do? I guess upgrade one of them to Cam Smith since he has retired from Origin.
From Leeroy Osborne
You don't need to panic too much just yet – Mitch Rein can make a little more cash with a score in the 20s off the bench and Viliame Kikau showed in round one he can produce big scores from the bench – but they could both be trades in the next week or two. This isn't the week to bring in Smith since he's suspended but he's certainly a target next week (for head-to-head) or after the Storm's round 13 bye.
What's doing with Nathan Brown? Have held onto him with each week reports saying he's a week away. Will be six rounds now that he's been out. Is his injury more severe or any other reasons their holding him out? Tempted to trade him for Crichton (bottomed out) or taking a punt on Ryan James (62.7 3-game average) but feel as soon I do he'll be named anyway.
From Todd Grieve
He's expected back in or after round 13. If you're playing for overall points and can spare the trade an upgrade to Crichton's not a bad move, or if you can afford to hold him or are playing head-to-head then hold.
Got Smith and Fonua not playing, and Kikau and Rein benched. Those are my 4 reserves, what's the best option for trades? Keep CS9 and Fonua, take the hit being short on players and trade out Rein and Kikau?
From Stu Blok
Yep, that's the way to go.
Trade Cameron Murray for Ryan Matterson? Due to Murray coming off the bench?
From Pani Mata
It's a pretty good trade, but it could wait a week – Matterson's price will drop unless he hits the high 60s or better this week, and Murray's still some chance of being named to start at lock in round 12.
