Lone Scout's Round 3 NRL Fantasy Q&A
With Cowboys wrecking ball Jason Taumalolo sidelined, Sam Burgess demolishing defences and new young guns getting their chance in the top grade, there are plenty of NRL Fantasy talking points heading into round three.
Here are the answers to a few of this week's big questions
This week's talking points
Who at the Cowboys is looking to benefit most from Taumololo being out, and are they worth a buy?
From Rowan Berry
The obvious effect of Jason Taumalolo missing the next six weeks (at least) is new lock Josh McGuire and prop Jordan McLean could become consistent 50+ scorers in the short term, while Coen Hess and Gavin Cooper will start in the second row after playing one game each off the bench this year. It probably won't result in a massive boost for any one player though, so none are must-buys at this point.
What effect do you think Jake Clifford will have on the likes of Morgan and Kahu in terms or kick metres and goal kicking?
From Daniel Chapman
This is a good point. Clifford looks a quality playmaker and could have an impact on Michael Morgan and Jordan Kahu. The bigger concern is for Kahu, who could lose the goal-kicking duties to the youngster while also losing run metres and tackle breaks after switching from fullback to centre.
Clifford averaged 147 kick metres a game last year – about 60 more than Te Maire Martin as five-eighth this season – so theoretically Morgan could lose about three points a game if Clifford "takes" those kick-metre points off him. Still, Morgan is a vastly more experienced player and should remain the dominant playmaker so I wouldn't be worried about his scoring just yet.
Don't panic with these mid-rangers!
Will Sam Burgess keep up his current average? Looking at him as a replacement for JT.
From Jacob Newton
The simple answer is no: Burgess won't average 68 for the rest of the season – for the simple reason he won't score a try every game. But he could still score in the mid-50s, which makes him good value at the moment with a break even around 20. My hunch is he'll average around 50 for the season so will be a borderline keeper, but if you expect him to continue getting across the stripe with the Rabbitohs thumping teams on a regular basis he's not a bad shout at this point.
Is it worth persisting with Dylan Edwards?
From Joshua Long
He could still average 40-45 a game but he isn't among the elite wingers/fullbacks and doesn't look like a cash cow at this point. I'd jump ship to James Tedesco if you can, or look at a money-making scorer like Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad or Braidon Burns.
Thoughts on Matt Gillett & Kurt Capewell long term? Early days, but think they will turn out to be more solid than spectacular scorers. Looking at bringing in Braidon Burns & Jack Bird while they're still making good coin.
From Rick Edgerton
Burns and Bird are great buys and are in my team but so is Capewell and I won't be selling him just yet. Gillett doesn't look like a sell either. They may be coming off quiet scores but regardless both Gillett (average 46, break even 34) and Capewell (average 36, break even 24) will continue making money if they maintain their current form. See if you can get one (or both) of Burns/Bird into your squad another way.
The winger-fullback conundrum
McCullough to Smith and Edwards to Burns? It would mean I will have to play Kahu or Ravalawa.
From Kai Spence
Both are good trades, just aim to come up with a third scoring WFB sooner to play ahead of Kahu/Ravalawa rather than later.
Should I keep Napa or trade him for Burns, as I have a shortage of in my WFB slots? (I'm starting Kahu, who is due to start in the centres.)
From Serhan Segitmen
It's not a good time to sell Dylan Napa, who just scored 62 and has a break even of zero this week. Find another way to get Burns into your side.
1) Worth trading Kahu to Bird? 2) Is it worth trading a Ravalawa/Sivo/Garrick to Flegler?
From Anthony Hall
1) Yes. 2) This is much trickier. Flegler looked great last week but his game time will be questionable when Matt Lodge returns to the Broncos middle rotation. But his price will climb quickly if he delivers another big game this week. By the same token it's very hard to separate Ravalawa, Sivo and Garrick as cash cow prospects at this point. It's a gut decision really: if you expect Anthony Seibold to give Flegler more decent game time in the next few weeks make the trade, otherwise give your WFB cheapies another week to decide your next move.
Hodgson is killing me, can you rub your crystal ball to see if he'll level up, or should I swipe right to Mahoney?
From Jeffrey Gillan
The player profiles on NRL.com are handy these days – you can see a player's average NRL Fantasy score in previous years, plus a breakdown on various stats. Josh Hodgson's page shows that in five years in the NRL he's never averaged more than 47.3 across an entire season. There's no sign he's going to go up a level to becoming a 50+ scorer this year; I'd trade.
What to do with Taumalolo's money
Is Nick Meaney worth it and what's his longevity looking like?
From Stefan West
There are no guarantees around the Bulldogs' starting line-up these days but either way I'm not convinced Meaney is going to be a cash cow just yet – he scored 30 points a game at Newcastle last year and has a break even of 25. See how he goes this week before making any move.
Is Corey Waddell a decent pick-up in a struggling Manly side? He made 38 points in 43 minutes last week.
From Jim Balchin
It was an excellent start from Waddell last week, but we've already had several examples of cheapies who scored well first up and failed to deliver a week later (eg. Jacob Host, Mikaele Ravalawa). Waddell's minutes last week may have been inflated by Curtis Sironen leaving the field with concussion, and Addin Fonua-Blake is also back after a one-game suspension, so wait and see how he scores this week before making a call on him.
Is Mitchell Moses a potential POD option? Straight 50's even in a game where he missed 7 tackles and he's yet to register a try assist.
From Brandon Scott Leeza
Yeah he's a decent shout this season. The risk factors for Moses are Parra's form dipping (a genuine chance, with games against the Rooters and Sharks coming up) and Dylan Brown becoming a more dominant halves partner, but at this stage Moses is looking solid as a scorer, with potential upside. A break even of 24 after two scores of 50 makes him an interesting prospect.
Is Josh Aloiai a good cheapie/mid-ranger from a PPM stand point?
From Joshua Riley
He's in a very similar situation to Blake Lawrie – he's played 40 minutes twice, with scores of 39 and 36 and his price is rising. The main thing going against him is the fact Lawrie is cheaper and has been scoring higher.
What trades will you be making this week and who's on your radar?
From Ngasti Whart
Charnze Nicoll-Klodstad, Blake Lawrie and John Bateman aren't in my squad yet; two of them probably will be this weekend.
