The 122-point swing: Inside the Cowboys' correction that turned season around

The red pen was out for the Cowboys as a finals side after Round 13, falling to the Eels 24-16 a week after being humiliated 66-18 by Wests Tigers and sitting in a lowly 16th on the NRL ladder.

For a team that did all of the little things right in 2022 to finish fourth and just four points short of the Grand Final, Todd Payten's side had undoubtedly underperformed to start the year – their improvements from the season prior appearing long gone and a spot in the top eight becoming increasingly unlikely.

However, in the space of six weeks, the return of key personnel and a marked improvement in their yardage game has seen Cowboys bounce back with four wins on the trot. Their attack is humming and their defence has enjoyed a marked uplift.

But what it is that has actually improved? And, more importantly, are those improvements here to stay for the remainder of the season?

Fixing the errors

Payten highlighted North Queensland’s handling issues following their Round 6 loss to The Dolphins as a major factor behind their poor start.

“This game is hard enough when you’re only playing one opponent. We’re playing two at the moment - ourselves and the opposition, and it’s near impossible to win when you’re doing that,” Payten said.

The Cowboys finished that game with a season-high 13 errors and averaged 10.3 errors per game up to Round 13. 

Finishing third in running metres in 2022, the Cowboys ranked ninth in that department after the first 13 rounds of 2023 with only 1,657 metres per game.

They weren’t able to move the ball (averaging only 19 shifts per game), and they struggled to play themselves into the contest in the same way they had in the past.

Rather than building pressure and dominating in little actions early to win the game late, the Cowboys were forced to use their energy in defence while attempting 401 tackles per game. Their efforts off the ball in attack suffered as a result for only 83 decoys and supports per game, which further stunted their ability to get up the field.

Improved ball retention throughout North Queensland’s last four games has come an improved yardage game. They’ve turned the ball over just 7.3 times per game in the four matches since Round 13 while; their 2,024 running metres per game is the most in the competition from Round 14 onwards; while their 26 shifts per game is creating increased opportunities to attack the edges.

The Cowboys are keeping hold of the ball, surging up the field, and putting their bevy of attacking playmakers in position to pile up points.

Generating momentum for attack

One noticeable change in the past month is in how North Queensland has generated momentum ahead of a shift with a specific target on playmakers.

In just the last two weeks, they have forced Lachlan Ilias into making a career-high 27 tackles and Brandon Wakeham into 28 tackles – one short of his career-high. Asked to attempt 32 tackles in Round 14, Cameron Munster has only finished nine matches with more attempts in his 185-game NRL career.

Overall, the Cowboys have forced opposing halves into attempting an NRL-high 58.8 tackles per game in their last four matches, almost 13 more than they did throughout their first 13 matches. 

The set in the video below against the Rabbitohs shows exactly how one strong run directed at the right defender can change a set. On this occasion, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki’s carry is the catalyst to points two tackles later.

From a set piece, the Cowboys take two one-out carries to start before Finefeuiaki's carry triggers the shift. He makes Ilias a target in the line, hits him high and pumps his legs through contact. The young back-rower is able to push the Cowboys ten metres up the field and generate the ruck speed required to shift the ball wide.

With quick ball to the far edge, Jeremiah Nanai is able to get his arms free and create a half-break for Peta Hiku. Again, though, the key is the momentum created by quick play-the-ball. By the time Tom Dearden takes possession just past the tramline, he has six Rabbitohs players on his inside – five are in the shot with Blake Taaffe out the back behind the line. Dearden does an excellent job of engaging Peter Mamouzelos, and just like that, the Rabbitohs have only four players defending half of the field. Scott Drinkwater makes the right pass – again at the space around Ilias – and the man that started it all finishes it under the posts.

In Drinkwater, Dearden, Hiku, Nanai, and Valentine Holmes, the Cowboys have elite attacking players across the park and providing momentum for them to play on the front foot unlocks their potential to produce points.

The return of Jason Taumalolo

The return of Jason Taumalolo can’t be understated in that department, either.

While still present for the Cowboys' early season struggles, his addition to a side that has started to improve could make all of the difference to their finals push.

Payten has played around with Taumalolo’s role and minutes, while the Tongan international himself has also added a dangerous passing element to his game.

However, his ability to attract defenders and pull a defensive line out of shape remains his greatest strength, and a weapon for the Cowboys to deploy.

This set doesn’t turn into points, but it takes the Cowboys back to their suffocating best by pinning the opposition deep inside their own half.

In the video above, Taumalolo gets the set started with a strong carry off the back fence before Griffin Neame picks out rookie hooker Tallyn Da Silva in the line. Much like Finefeuiaki in the previous example, Neame gets the smaller defender high, pushes through contact, generates a quick play-the-ball, and Nanai plays off it. 

The important note at this point is Alex Twal at marker. As the Cowboys move the ball back to Taumalolo in the middle, he’s able to attract four defenders into the tackle, including the Wests Tigers halfback in Wakeham.

With a strong carry, the Cowboys leaves Wakeham and Tim Sheens' side defending with only four players covering half of the field. Twal has not only travelled a long way to A but is also being asked to make his third tackle of the set now.

With acres of space between him and Shawn Blore outside at B, Jake Granville’s fast feet are able to get to Twal’s outside and generate a quick play-the-ball. With it, Chad Townsend has all of the time in the world to land his kick inside the Tigers' ten-metre line, and the Cowboys have travelled 90 metres after points.

That’s the Cowboys at their best.

Having tidied up the errors and improved their yardage game as a result, North Queensland is back within touching distance of finals footy. In fact, they’re only four competition points from returning to their position inside the top four.

While the record-breaking blowout win over Wests Tigers and benefit of playing injury or Origin-impacted teams has skewed the numbers somewhat, the Cowboys can undoubtedly carry their current momentum through to September.

And if they can continue to build, and remain healthy from here on in, there's no ruling out another run deep into the finals and the chance to be the first team in NRL history to concede 50 points in a game and go on to win the Premiership.